Ethereum (ETH) негиздөөчүсү Vitalik Buterin has criticized the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model for predicting and measuring the value of Bitcoin (BTC), claiming that it creates a false sense of financial security about the digital asset’s value.
According to Buterin, financial models like the S2F give people false assurance that the “number will go up” before adding that such models “are harmful and deserve all the mockery they get.”
Stock-toflow азыр чындап эле жакшы көрүнбөйт.
Мен мактануу жана ушулардын бардыгын адепсиздик деп билем, бирок менин оюмча, адамдарга жалган ишеним жана алдын ала белгилөө сезимин берген каржы моделдери зыяндуу жана алар шылдыңдоого татыктуу. https://t.co/hOzHjVb1oq pic.twitter.com/glMKQDfSbU
- vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) Май 21, 2022
What is Plan B’s stock-to-flow model?
Crypto analyst Plan B developed the now infamous stock-to-flow model. The model quantifies the value of an asset based on its scarcity. Although originally used for precious metals such as silver and gold, Plan B used it to predict that Bitcoin value would increase 10x every four years.
It gained widespread attention last year when it correctly predicted the future prices of Bitcoin during the bull run, despite minor deviations. But critics claim the major problem with the theory is that it only considers the supply aspect of BTC while assuming demand will keep growing.
Using the model, Plan B алдын ала that Bitcoin would reach $100k by the end of 2021; however, the coin only touched an all-time high of $69,000 in November before crashing.
Bitcoin’s decline shines a light on the S2F model
With Bitcoin’s price recovering from its crash to under $20,000, crypto analysts are beginning to take a more cursory look at the S2F model.
The ‘Stock to flow’ model is such an epic failure that PlanB should just delete his account
He won’t though because he sadly still has 1.8 million followers who eat up all of his hopium garbage on a daily basis
— sasal.eth ??? (@sassal0x) Май 21, 2022
According to Sassal, the S2F model has been an “epic failure,” adding that Plan B should delete his Twitter account.
Reminds me of the false ‘mathematical’ models @hashed_official posted to con people into thinking UST demand would grow exponentially and LUNA would hit insane price targets like $1,000 pic.twitter.com/T7PIyTULmj
— FatMan (@FatManTerra) Май 21, 2022
FatManTerra also used the opportunity to criticize the “mathematical” models that predicted that LUNA’s value could reach $1,000.
Plan B responds
Plan B has responded to the many criticisms of his S2F model, saying that “people are looking for scapegoats.”
Кырсыктан кийин адамдар ийгиликсиз долбоорлору же туура эмес инвестициялык чечимдери үчүн күнөөкөрлөрдү издеп жатышат. Жаңы келгендер гана эмес, «лидерлер» дагы башкаларды күнөөлөп, жабырлануучунун ролун ойноонун курмандыгы болушат. Башкаларды күнөөлөгөндөрдү жана кыйроодон кийин бекем тургандарды эстеңиз. https://t.co/4nJdHq84pm
- PlanB (@ 100trillionUSD) Май 21, 2022
Plan B continued that “leaders” in the space like Vitalik Buterin are “blaming others and playing the victim.”
#bitcoin S2F оригиналдуу 2019 модели (боз) жана эң акыркы маалыматтарга эң жаңы туура келет (ак чекиттер). S2F модели, албетте, Март 2019дан (BTC 4K) 2022-жылга чейин (BTC 45K) жакшы иштеди. Азырынча: же BTC өтө бааланбай жатат жана жакында кайра калыбына келет, же S2F келечекте азыраак пайдалуу болот pic.twitter.com/JdnLINpzTV
- PlanB (@ 100trillionUSD) Май 20, 2022
On June 20, Plan B бөлүштү a graph showing that the S2F model was accurate between March 2019 and March 2022 and said that “either BTC is extremely undervalued and will bounce back soon, or S2F will be less useful in the future.”
Source: https://cryptoslate.com/vitalik-buterin-calls-plan-bs-stock-to-flow-bitcoin-model-harmful/