Ethereum туундулары аюу көрүнөт, бирок соодагерлер ETH түбүнө ишенишет

Алгашкы махаббат (ETH) rallied 5.5% in the early hours of Nov. 29, reclaiming the critical $1,200 support. However, when analyzing a broader time frame, the 24% negative performance in the past 30 days significantly impacts investors’ sentiment. Moreover, investors’ mood worsened after BlockFi банкрот деп табылган Нояб 28 боюнча.

Newsflow remained negative after the United States Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) announced a settlement with crypto exchange Kraken for “apparent violations of sanctions against Iran.” In a Nov. 28 announcement, the OFAC said Kraken had agreed to pay more than $362,000 to settle its potential civil liability.

Moreover, on Nov. 28, institutional crypto financial services provider Silvergate Capital denied rumors of significant exposure to BlockFi’s bankruptcy. Silvergate added that its losses are less than than $20 million in digital assets and reiterated that BlockFi was not a custodian for its crypto-collateralized loans.

Traders are afraid that Ether could drop below $800 if the bear market continues. One example comes from Crypto Twitter trader Il Capo Of Crypto:

I have spent hundreds of hours analyzing the market to come to the conclusion that:

Capitulation is a matter of time. $ BTC should reach 12ks, $ ETH 600-700, altcoins should drop 40-50% and shitcoins 50%+.

I won’t post any more here until confirmation or invalidation.

Жакшы ийгилик!

- Cryo Cryo (@CryptoCapo_) November 28, 2022

карап чыгабыз Эфир туундулары data to understand if the worsening market conditions have impacted crypto investors’ sentiment.

Pro traders are slowly exiting panic levels

Retail traders usually avoid quarterly futures due to their price difference from spot markets. They are professional traders’ preferred instruments because they prevent the fluctuation of funding rates that often occurs in a түбөлүк фьючерстик келишим.

Эки айлык фьючерс жылдык премиум чыгашаларды жана ага байланыштуу тобокелдиктерди жабуу үчүн дени сак базарларда + 4% дан + 8% га чейин соода кылышы керек. Ошентип, фьючерстер кадимки спот базарларына салыштырмалуу арзандатуу менен соода кылганда, бул левередж сатып алуучулардын ишениминин жоктугун көрсөтөт - төмөндөө көрсөткүч.

The above chart shows that derivatives traders remain bearish as the Ether futures premium is negative. Nevertheless, it at least has shown some modest improvement on Nov. 29. Bears can highlight how far we are from a neutral-to-bullish 0% to 4% premium, but the aftermath of a 71% drop in one year holds great weight.

Still, traders should also analyze Эфирдин опциондор базарлары фьючерстик инструментке мүнөздүү тышкы таасирлерди алып салуу.

Options traders do not expect a sudden rally

25% дельтанын кыйшаюусу маркет-мейкерлер жана арбитраждык столдор тескери же тескери жактан коргоо үчүн ашыкча кубаттап жатышканын көрсөтүп турат.

Аюу базарларында опциондук инвесторлор баанын төмөндөшүнө жогорку коэфициенттерди беришет, бул кыйшаюу көрсөткүчүнүн 10% дан жогору көтөрүлүшүнө алып келет. Башка жагынан алып караганда, өскөн базарлар ийри индикаторду -10% дан төмөн түшүрүүгө умтулушат, демек, аюу опциондору арзандатылган.

The delta skew has gone down in the past week, signaling that options traders are more comfortable offering downside protection.

As the 60-day delta skew stands at 18%, whales and market makers are pricing higher odds of price dumps for Ether. Consequently, both options and futures markets point to pro traders fearing a retest of the $1,070 low is the natural course for ETH.

From an optimistic perspective, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode shows that the November 2022 sell-off was the fourth-largest Bitcoin үчүн (BTC). The movement has led to a seven-day realized loss of $10.2 billion.

Consequently, odds are the capitulation for Ether holders has passed and those placing bullish bets right now — defying the ETH derivatives metrics — will eventually come out ahead.