According to the recently published Capitulation Confluence Model, the current phase of the терминалдарда market is similar to the ends of all 3 historical bear markets. If this is true, BTC may soon start a new bull run. Moreover, this remains partially consistent with readings from the on-chain indicator: Realized Price.
планы C is a cryptocurrency market analyst who is known for publishing cutting-edge models that combine multiple technical and on-chain analysis indicators. Back in May, BeInCrypto wrote about his Confluence Floor Model, which was supposed to indicate the price below which the BTC price would not fall. Unfortunately, just a month later, it turned out that the model had failed, and the largest cryptocurrency fell far below what was supposed to be the “floor.”
Capitulation Confluence Model readings
The analyst’s latest model called Capitulation Confluence Model combines 3 on-chain indicators: Аткарылган жоготуу, Network Cost Basis Change, and SOPR. The graph derived from their combination suggests that Bitcoin is today in the negative territory of the new indicator. Historically, this territory has been correlated with the period of the macro bottom in the BTC price and the subsequent accumulation.
In the chart below, we see that so far the Capitulation Confluence Model indicator has been in negative territory 4 times:
- at the end of 2011: the BTC bottom at $2.05
- in early 2015: the BTC bottomed at $164
- at the turn of 2018-2019: the BTC bottom at $3148
- currently as of June 2022: BTC bottom at $17,600
Moreover, usually (except in 2011) the entry into negative territory was correlated with a sharp drop in the BTC price, leading to a macro bottom. This was followed by several months of accumulation. As the analyst calculates, it lasted 112 days in 2011, 62 days in 2015, and 113 days in 2018-2019, respectively.
Averaging these three historical periods, we get 96 days, after which Bitcoin ended capitulation and began a new bull market. Plan C adds that the current capitulation, according to the Capitulation Confluence Model, has already lasted 65 days. Thus, it has already lasted longer than the corresponding period in 2015. Moreover, there are only 31 days, or a month, left to equal the average of previous historical capitulation periods.
One of the first commentators on the Capitulation Confluence Model was its author himself. A few dozen minutes later, he published a tweet in which he suggested that the capitulation period indicated by the indicator is the best opportunity for “simply DCAing everyday.”
Source: https://beincrypto.com/capitulation-confluence-model-bitcoin-btc-is-in-phase-of-triple-capitulation/