Аюулар BTC баасын 18 миң доллардан төмөн кармоону көздөгөндүктөн, Bitcoin бир күндүк кирешени артка тартат

On Dec. 14, Bitcoin (BTC) broke above $18,000 for the first time in 34 days, marking a 16.5% gain from the $15,500 low on Nov. 21. The move followed a 3% gain in the S&P 500 futures in three days, which reclaimed the critical 4,000 points support. 

While BTC price started the day in favor of bulls, investors anxiously awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve decision on interest rates, along with Fed chair Jerome Powell’s remarks. The subsequent 50 basis point hike and Powell’s explanation of why the Fed would stay the course gave investors good reason to doubt that BTC price will hold its current gains leading into the $370 million options expiry on Dec. 16.

Analysts and traders expect some form of softening in the macroeconomic tightening movement. For those unfamiliar, the Federal Reserve increased its balance sheet from $4.16 trillion in February 2020 to a staggering $8.9 trillion in February 2022.

Since that peak, the monetary authority has been trying to unload debt instruments and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a process known as tapering. However, the previous five months resulted in less than a $360 billion decline in the Fed’s assets.

Until there’s a clearer guide on the economic policies of the world’s largest economy, Bitcoin traders are likely to remain skeptical of a sustained price movement, regardless of the direction.

Аюулар коюмдарынын көбүн 16,500 XNUMX доллардан төмөн коюшкан

The open interest for the Dec. 16 options expiry is $370 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were caught off-guard after the move to $18,000 on Dec. 14. These traders completely missed the mark by placing bearish bets between $11,000 and $16,500, which seems unlikely given the market conditions.

The 0.94 call-to-put ratio shows a balance between the $180 million call (buy) open interest against the $190 million put (sell) options. Nevertheless, as Bitcoin stands near $18,000, most bearish bets will likely become worthless.

If Bitcoin remains above $18,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 16, virtually none of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because a right to sell Bitcoin at $17,000 or $18,000 is worthless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls can profit up to $155 million

Төмөндө учурдагы баанын аракетине негизделген төрт ыктымал сценарий бар. Саны Bitcoin параметрлери келишимдер 16-декабрда жеткиликтүү чакыруу (бука) жана коюу (аюу) инструменттери мөөнөтү баасына жараша өзгөрүп турат. Ар бир тарапка пайда болгон дисбаланс теориялык пайданы түзөт:

• $ 16,500 менен $ 17,500 ортосунда: 1,400 чалуу жана 1,200 чалуу. Таза натыйжа чалуулар жана коюулар ортосунда тең салмактуу.
• $ 17,500 менен $ 18,000 ортосунда: 3,700 чалууга каршы 100 чалуу. Таза натыйжа 60 миллион долларга чалуу (бука) инструменттерин жактырат.
• $ 18,000 менен $ 19,000 ортосунда: 6,200 чалууга каршы 0 чалуу. Таза натыйжа 115 миллион долларга чалуу (бука) инструменттерин жактырат.
• $ 19,000 менен $ 19,500 ортосунда: 8,100 чалууга каршы 0 чалуу. Таза натыйжа 155 миллион долларга чалуу (бука) инструменттерин жактырат.

Бул чийки баа аюу коюмдарында колдонулган сатуу опциондорун жана нейтралдуу-буллиш соодаларында гана чалуу опциондорун карайт. Ошентсе да, бул ашыкча жөнөкөйлөтүү татаалыраак инвестициялык стратегияларды эске албайт.

Мисалы, бир соодагер белгилүү бир баада Биткойндун оң таасирин тийгизип, сатуу опциясын сата алмак, бирок, тилекке каршы, бул эффектти баалоонун оңой жолу жок.

FTX contagion continues to impact markets

During bear markets, it’s easier to negatively impact Bitcoin price due to the tone of newsflow and its outsized effect on the crypto market.

Recent negative crypto news includes reporting on a U.S. court filing that showed an “unfair” trading advantage for Alameda Research, the market-making and trading company associated with bankrupt exchange FTX.

The U.S. Commodities Futures Trading Commission alleges that Alameda Research had faster trading execution times and an exemption from the exchange’s “auto-liquidation risk management process.”

Leading into Dec. 16, the bulls’ best-case scenario requires a pump above $19,000 to extend their gains to $155 million. This seems improbable considering the lingering regulatory and contagion risks. For now, bears will likely be able to pressure BTC below $18,000 and avoid a higher loss.