Биткойн букалары жума күнү 675 миллион долларлык опциондордун мөөнөтү бүтүшүнө алып келген ушул жумадагы BTC жетишкендиктерин кармап турууну көздөшөт.

Bitcoin баасы (BTC) gained 6.3% just two days after reaching $21,370 on Feb. 13, which was the lowest level seen in more than three weeks. The price recovery can be partially explained by the Feb. 14 U.S. Consumer Price Index data displaying a 6.4% increase in year-over-year inflation in January.

While the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to monitor the overheated economy, the most likely scenario is further interest rate hikes to curb inflation. The unintended consequence is the heightened government debt cost, creating a bullish environment for scarce assets such as commodities, stock market and cryptocurrencies.

The price gain of Bitcoin practically extinguished bears’ expectation for a sub-$21,500 options expiry on Feb. 17, so their bets are unlikely to pay off as the deadline approaches.

Bitcoin investors’ primary concern is the possibility of further impacts from regulators following the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission ordering Kraken to halt its staking rewards program on Feb. 9 and the crackdown on Binance USD (BUSD) stablecoin issuing on Feb. 13.

Even if the newsflow remains negative, bulls still can profit from Feb. 17’s options expiry by keeping the BTC price above $22,500, but the situation can easily flip and favor bears.

Bears were not expecting the $22,000 level to hold

The open interest for the Feb. 17 options expiry is $675 million, but the actual figure will be lower since bears were expecting sub-$22,000 price levels. These traders became overconfident after Bitcoin traded below $21,500 on Feb. 13.

The 1.12 call-to-put ratio reflects the imbalance between the $355 million call (buy) open interest and the $320 million put (sell) options. If Bitcoin’s price remains near $22,700 at 8:00 am UTC on Feb. 17, only $24 million worth of these put (sell) options will be available. This difference happens because the right to sell Bitcoin at $21,000 or $22,000 is useless if BTC trades above that level on expiry.

Bulls aim for $23,000 to secure a $155 million profit

Below are the four most likely scenarios based on the current price action. The number of options contracts available on Feb. 17 for call (bull) and put (bear) instruments varies, depending on the expiry price. The imbalance favoring each side constitutes the theoretical profit:

• $ 21,000 менен $ 22,000 ортосунда: 700 чалуу жана 5,500 чалуу. Таза натыйжа 100 миллион долларга коюу (аюу) инструменттерин пайда кылат.
• $ 22,000 менен $ 22,500 ортосунда: 1,800 чалуу жана 1,500 чалуу. Таза натыйжа аюу менен букалардын ортосунда тең салмактуу.
• $ 22,500 менен $ 23,000 ортосунда: 3,800 чалууга каршы 1,100 чалуу. Таза натыйжа 60 миллион долларга чалуу (бука) инструменттерин жактырат.
• $ 23,000 менен $ 24,000 ортосунда: 6,900 чалууга каршы 200 чалуу. Таза натыйжа 155 миллион долларга чалуу (бука) инструменттерин жактырат.

Бул чийки баа өсүүчү коюмдарда колдонулган чалуу опциондорун жана нейтралдуудан ылдыйга карай соодада гана сатуу опциондорун карайт. Ошентсе да, бул ашыкча жөнөкөйлөтүү татаалыраак инвестициялык стратегияларды эске албайт.

Мисалы, соодагер белгилүү бир баадан жогору Биткойнго терс таасирин тийгизип, чалуу опциясын сата алмак, бирок, тилекке каршы, бул эффектти баалоонун оңой жолу жок.

байланыштуу: АКШ долларынын күчү 23 жуманын эң жогорку чегине жеткенине карабастан, Bitcoin баасы 6 миң долларды түзөт

Bears might benefit from the impact of regulation

Bitcoin bulls need to push the price above $23,000 on Feb. 17 to secure a potential $155 million profit. On the other hand, the bears’ best-case scenario requires a 3.5% dump below $22,000 to maximize their gains.

Considering the negative pressure from regulators, bears have good odds of flipping the table and avoiding a loss of $60 million or larger on Feb. 17.

More importantly, looking at a broader time frame, there is little room for the Fed to slow down the economy without spiraling the debt interest repayments out of control.

Feb. 17 will be an interesting display of strength between the short-term impact of a hostile crypto regulation environment versus Bitcoin’s long-term scarcity and censorship-resistance benefits.

Bitcoin (BTC) price gained 6.3% just two days after reaching $21,370 on Feb. 13, which was the lowest level seen in more than three weeks. The price recovery can be partially explained by the Feb. 14 U.S. Consumer price index data displaying a 6.4% increase in year-over-year inflation in January.